18th January 2018
Event phone: +44 (0)20 7408 2000
Guy will be sharing a highly interactive talk so please bring your smart devices with you!
Exploring for oil and gas is fundamentally an evidence based science. Seasoned explorers study the data and make observations about recognisable geological attributes which they connect with known associations as evidence for the existence or denial of working petroleum systems. Geo-technical explorers then tend to place a skin of commercial viability over that to represent value drivers, rather than using the value drivers to condition their observations. When we recruit new blood in to the business, the emphasis is quite rightly about the skills the candidates can apply to associate evidence and their raw talent in being able to make leaps of faith. So what place if any does knowledge have in the 21st century? in a world where we can crowd-source opinion is knowledge even relevant?
An exploration new ventures simulation has been developed in an attempt to answer these questions, which invites participants possessing a broad spectrum of technical and commercial background, to play the role of an exploration manager in evaluating a new ventures opportunity using a predefined set of metrics. The simulated data room invites everyone attending, with or without prior knowledge, to review the petroleum system robustness (sub-surface quality) in parallel with commercial attractiveness (economics and feasibility). What participants will take away is a much more important (but unspoken) attribute of candidate selection for recruitment in the oil & gas sector, which is around behaviour and attitude.
The results of the experiment are as much a test of the granularity of metrics used as they are in collapsing cognitive bias from an unfiltered pool. At the very least, the simulation will capture the range of perceptions and at best, it will converge on a common understanding of reality. Whether participants as individuals turn out to be risk averse (cautious) or risk takers (opportunistic) is not important, because both attitudes are required by industry at different stages of opportunity maturation.
The Three Tuns