Mitigating Geologic Risk through Quantitative Interpretation

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In the past in frontier geological basins the rewards have been such that we have accepted relative measures of risk but today with deep water challenges, high drilling costs and smaller rewards in mature basins we must do more to  Prevent or  Eliminate the risk of failure.

Geologic risk has historically been a relative measure of uncertainty, in basins where the prizes have been substantial then we have often been prepared to Accept this relative assessment of risk.  Where geologic risk is deemed too high then we have in the past Transferred the risk to another party (e.g. a farminee).  However in frontier basins where the risks are high and in mature basins where the rewards are low there is an alternate solution, we can Mitigate the risk through the application of technology to enable us to make more Informed decisions.

It is a generally accepted fact that information has Value when we are faced with uncertainty.  In fact there are three criteria which must be satisfied for this to be the case; first the information must inform about an uncertainty (e.g. porosity or saturation) in other words it must be Relevant, second, there must be a Material decision that can be made based upon the information (e.g. where to drill) and thirdly the information must cost less than the reward (i.e. Economic).  Quantitative Interpretation (a.k.a. QI) enables us to assess relevant risk to make informed decisions at relatively low cost.

Our geoscience technologies are rapidly improving and all geoscientists need to ensure that they keep informed about changes in Quantitative Interpretation methods, with this in mind the PESGB will host a one-day seminar sponsored by Ikon Science on 24th October at the Geological Society Piccadilly, London.   The call for papers is now closed and we have a full technical program for the day followed by a reception sponsored by Ikon Science.  Registration is now open on the PESGB website.

 

See you there!

Steve Pickering